A while ago, a dear friend introduced me to Todd Rose’s book, The End of Average (translated into Persian by Maryam Jafari). We spent time discussing how deceptive statistical aggregates can be. That conversation triggered a memory of a famous World War II case study that has profoundly shaped my perspective as a practitioner working with human communities, landscapes, and fragile ecosystems.
During the Second World War, the US Air Force was facing an alarming rate of bomber casualties. Armor plating could not cover the entire aircraft without making it too heavy to maneuver and fly. The engineers needed to know: Where should we add armor?
They examined the bombers returning safely from missions, meticulously mapping the bullet holes. The data was unmistakable: bullet holes peppered the wings and the fuselage, while the engines and cockpits had remarkably few hits. The military engineers reached an intuitive conclusion: reinforce the wings and the fuselage because that is where the enemy fire hits most.
His reasoning was as brilliant as it was simple: enemy bullets do not avoid engines by choice; bullets hit randomly. The reason returning planes showed few bullet holes in their engines was that planes hit in those critical areas never made it back to the base to be examined. The recorded data told only the story of the survivors. The truth was written on the planes that were missing from the tarmac.
In data science, this is celebrated as Survivorship Bias. But for those of us who spend our lives on the ground—working alongside rural communities, indigenous populations, and vulnerable ecosystems—it carries an even deeper, urgent lesson.
The Trap of the "Present Data"
Over decades of working across Iran's landscapes—from facilitating water management in severely depleted arid plains to designing sustainable rural constellations; from living alongside traditional forest-dependent communities in the ancient Hyrcanian temperate rainforests to working for the conservation of endangered wildlife like the Asiatic cheetah—I have consistently encountered the same recurring blind spot.
When external planners, researchers, or hydrologists enter an area, what lands on the table?
Official statistics, satellite imagery, lists of active wells, piezometric groundwater curves, livestock counts, timber yields, or economic models. And when community meetings are convened, who sits around the room? Usually, the visible, active participants: farmers who still hold water quotas, influential local figures, or those whose livelihoods have managed to endure so far.
These tables, charts, and attendees are the bombers that made it back to the base. They represent only what has managed to survive until today.
If we design policies, conservation frameworks, or participatory plans solely around these visible survivors, we are only treating symptoms while ignoring systemic collapse.
Three Questions Every Facilitator Must Ask
To avoid falling into the trap of neat paper reports, my field experience has taught me that we must step back and ask three fundamental questions at the very outset of any participatory process:
1. What should be in this landscape that is no longer here?
When observing a landscape, we cannot measure only the remaining cubic meters of water, remaining forest canopy, or surviving herds. We must ask: What ancestral practices of living with the land have vanished? Where is the indigenous knowledge—such as traditional floodwater harvesting systems (Ab-bandans and seasonal diversion channels) that nourished whole catchments?
In the Hyrcanian forests, where did the ancient cultural ties that protected the canopy give way to economic desperation? Across dry plains, what happened to the silent seasonal streams and natural vegetation that held the topsoil? These ecological memories do not appear on engineering balance sheets, yet their absence tells the real story.
2. Who had a rightful stake here, yet is absent from this room?
When we gather around a participatory table, who is not there?
- Where are the families whose livelihoods collapsed five or ten years ago, forcing them to abandon their lands for informal urban settlements?
- Where is the voice of the young generation who see no future in the countryside and migrated?
- Where are the local women, whose intimate knowledge of food security, child welfare, and natural resource care rarely makes it to formal boardroom discussions?
Those sitting in the room are the survivors who still have an active stake. But our decisions will shape the fate of those who were driven away, as well as generations not yet born.
3. What vital human realities cannot be translated into project indicators?
A rural livelihood is never just an economic equation where water, trees, or land are mere inputs to optimize. Agriculture and land-stewardship mean cultural roots, self-reliance, and the human dignity of feeding one’s family without depending on charity.
A pastoralist’s quiet dread, a farmer’s deep-seated mistrust born of unfulfilled promises, or the emotional grief of seeing a native river diverted elsewhere—none of these fit into hydrological formulas, economic optimization charts, or wildlife density metrics. Yet, it is precisely these unmeasured human realities that determine whether any technical intervention will take root or fail miserably.
Whose Responsibility Are the Missing Data?
Navigating these unseen dimensions cannot fall on one pair of shoulders alone. It demands distinct roles from three key actors:
1. The Facilitator’s Duty: Reframing the Lens
The facilitator is not expected to know all the answers or magically fill in every void. Our primary duty is to be the first to break out of the shell of survivorship bias. By opening our eyes to what is absent, we can redirect exhausted discussions away from trivial administrative disputes and towards what truly matters. Our role is to create a safe, compassionate space where untold grief and quiet wisdom can surface without fear.
2. The Local Community’s Role: Turning Scattered Pain into Shared Awareness
Local communities know the missing data far better than any visiting expert; they have lived it in their bones. However, under daily survival pressures, people often get trapped in a tragic race to deplete what remains. Through honest facilitation, communities can bring their hidden pain and lived history into the open, connecting individual survival to a collective future.
3. The Policymaker’s Courage: Welcoming Realities Beyond the Spreadsheet
Policymakers and donors are often the most captive to survivorship bias, constrained by rigid project cycles and quantifiable KPIs. Their critical task is to cultivate the humility to listen to what numbers cannot capture. A durable ecological corridor, a thriving rural constellation, or an aquifer restored back to health cannot be achieved through top-down mandates; it requires embracing the messy, qualitative truths of the land.
Epilogue
Abraham Wald taught us that looking at the bullet holes in front of our eyes is not enough; the profoundest wisdom lies in the silence of what fell from the sky.
For community-based facilitators, local leaders, and stewards of the earth, our truest craft begins where the spreadsheets end: in honoring the missing voices, restoring forgotten knowledge, and making sure that those who fell off the radar are never forgotten in the blueprints of tomorrow.